CASPIAN SEA COAST
From the beginning of systemic observations over the regione of Caspian sea during one century its levels were inconsiderably oscillating near the mark of minus 26 m.
During thirties of the XX-th century catastrophic drop of its level for 1.7 m has taken place. In further the drop of the level has been continuing, bur in lesser degree, and
in the year of 1979 its level has reached the mark of minus 29 m. Increase, which has begun after this, has been observed up to the year 1995, as this takes place,
mean annual levels have surpassed the mark minus 27 m
[Bolgov M.V., Trubetskova M.D., Filimonova M.K. About Caspian sea level forecast. 6 th Int. Congress “Water: ecology and technology”, EKVATEK-2004, Part 1, pp. 85. (in Russian)].
Slow drop is taking place during last years. As of the state for the year 1999, it has been minus 0.35 m
[Kazakova I.G. Flooding development peculiarities on Russian shore of Caspian sea. 4 th Int.Congress “Water: ecology and technology”, EKVATEK-2000, pp. 239. (in Russian)].
Forecast of multi-annual of water level oscillations of inner basin, such as is Caspian sea, is the most complex geophysical task, demanding knowledge both of peculiarities of hydrometeorological regime of the region, and also of mechanisms of origin of long-periodical oscillations of climate and discharge. There are possible, with the modern level of scientific knowledge, only probabilistic forecasts of hydrometeorological components of water balance, for example, in the form of mean position of sea level and deviations from this position with prescribed possibility (quantils).
For the period up to year 2010, 2020, 2030, etc., mean forecasted level (50% of providing) is from minus 27,05 m (which corresponds to modern position of coastal line) up to minus 27,98 m for the year 2050 (i.e., actually to the level which is considered as safe). The most unfavorable forecast of 0,1% supply for the same periods is minus 25,48 m, and the most unfavorable forecast of 1% supply is minus 26,02 m
[Bolgov M.V., Trubetskova M.D., Filimonova M.K. About Caspian sea level forecast. 6 th Int. Congress “Water: ecology and technology”, EKVATEK-2004, Part 1, pp. 85. (in Russian)].
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