VI. MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF HYDROGEOLOGICAL CONDITIONS OF KYZYLZHARMINSKI DEPOSIT OF GROUNDWATERS FROM SYRDARYINSKI ARTESIAN BASIN FOR WATER SUPPLY OF THE CITY OF KYZYLORDA

2. Solution of prognostic hydrodynamic task and exploitable ground waters quality forecast task

2.3 Formulation and solution of exploitable groundwaters quality forecast task

Groundwaters quality deterioration of exploitable Upper-Turonian aquifer of Kyzylzharminski groundwaters deposit is possible basically at the expense of overflow of brackish groundwaters from Maastrichtian, Coniacian-Campanian and Upper-Albian-Senomanian aquifers. With the aim of groundwaters quality change forecast of Kyzylzharminski deposit the task of transfer by the groundwaters flow of components soluted in it. This task was soluted on the model created. It has been used for this the MT3D module of GMS system of modeling. Mathematical model has imitated the collective transfer of components soluble in groundwaters. It has been considered that groundwaters mineralization of Maastrichtian aquifer is equal to 4 g/dm3 and it has not been changed during prognostic task solution process. Initial values of groundwaters mineralization of Coniacian-Campanian, Upper-Turonian aquifers and Upper-Albian-Senomanian aquiferous complex for the solution of prognostic task have been given on the base of the corresponding maps, constructed for 1.10.2010.

Groundwaters mineralization forecast map of Upper-Turonian aquifer was calculated for 16.02.2038. Maximal mineralization of groundwaters will reach 1.33 g/dm3 to the end of prognostic period. The largest increase of mineralization (0.22 g/dm3) will be in wells, for which forecasted maximal depth of bedding of dynamic level (130 m) will be at the end of the period forecasted.

Groundwaters mineralization forecast map of

Upper-Turonian aquifer as of the state for the 16.02.2038

Groundwaters mineralization change map of

Upper-Turonian aquifer from 1.10.2010 up to 16.02.2038.

Sulphates concentration calculation in groundwaters of Upper-Turonian aquifer in exploitable wells of Kyzylzharminski deposit was made by analytical method on the base of forecasted mineralization calculated by method of modeling.

From the results of calculation it can be made the conclusion that because of massed water discharge from Upper-Turonian aquifer of Kyzylzharminski deposit will give groundwaters quality deterioration, but their mineralization does not exceed 1.5 g/dm3 at the end of the prognostic period. Maximal concentration of sulphates in groundwaters will reach 0.40 g/dm3, but does not exceed maximally allowable value of 0.5 g/dm3.
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